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Another blog about Michael Crabtree(but one you probably haven’t read)

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

I know, I know.  Everyone and their dog is writing about  Michale Crabtree.  Or at least I assume they are.  I honestly haven’t checked around, but I know how stories like this grow legs and right now the Crabtree saga is first and foremost on a lot of people’s minds.  Not mine, but a lot of people.

To be completely honest, I am over Crabtree.   Not because I no longer like him as a player, but I’m over the drama.  According the Adam Schefter at ESPN, it is past any sort of deadline to trade Crabtree, and if he isn’t under contract with the Niners by the 19th of November, he cannot sign this year, and will go back into the draft.  But there’s sort of loophole to that says next March 2010 they have a small window to try and trade him again, before the 2010 draft, where he’s be another prospect.   Using all the math at my disposal, meaning my digits, that looks to be around 2 months to get him under contract or he’ll probably never be a Niner.

A couple of points I find fascinating in this before I give my perspective.  The 49ers are winning.  I’m not sure how(other than Frank Gore) but they are winning football games.  This works against Crabtree and any sort of “you need me” angle he may be playing.  Another observation is just how much the Texas Tech Red Raiders could have used him last Saturday against the Longhorns.  You left friends on that team Crabtree to chance NFL millions.  Crabtree’s image has take a big, albeit temporary nose dive in the eyes of football fans everywhere.  The Niners appear to be absolutely content with the idea that Crabtree won’t be on the team.  And finally, there are a lot of rookie wide outs in the league right now contributing to their teams.

Now, this all would lead one to believe I am going to just blast Crabtree for what he is doing.  Surprise because I’m not.  And here’s why.

I have no problem with Crabtree not wanting to be a Niner, and let’s be honest that’s what this is.  It’s not about a few bucks in NFL terms.  Crabtree doesn’t want to play for them.  We all have to go to jobs we may or may not love.  Crabtree is exercising his right to not go to a job he doesn’t want to.  Is that such a bad thing?

Everyone is all over Crabtree because he was chosen by the Niners, and therefore he holds some sort of obligation to just do what they say.  That couldn’t be further from the truth.  The only side in this with any real obligation is the Niners front office to try and sign him.  Oh, one point.  I am very impressed with the Niner front office not to cave into Crabtree’s demands for fear of the backlash it would get from the league.   But at the same time I am glad Crabtree is testing it.

There is no professional sports league where the players in it have less power than the NFL.  This is because their business model is constructed around the tenant that no player is bigger than the league.  Crabtree is making himself bigger than the league and even if he fails you have to appreciate what he’s trying to do.  Make it a players league not a team league.

I full expect Crabtree to end up back in the 2010 draft.  I am not prepared to speculate about where he’ll be drafted, but I will be day one for sure.  he’s too talented not too and great wide receivers are just too hard to find.  No, he won’t be a top ten pick, but in all likelyhood he’ll end up on a pretty good football team.  And he’ll get paid.

Oh, and what’s with all the chest thumping from former players chastising Crabtree?  Rodney “roid” Harrison called him the biggest idiot in the NFL.  He also said that he’s going to get blackballed.  What a crock.  When Michael Crabtree signs be it this year with San Fran, or next year somewhere else, his teammates will welcome him with open arms.  It’s what we do.  We forgive.  We let sociopaths and murders on the field and  welcome them in, they can do the same for Crabtree.

If I could have been Crabtree I’d have never tested the system like this.  I’d have signed my contract and started playing football.  But that doesn’t change the fact I admire what Crabtree is doing.  The only way this doesn’t work out of him is if he’s unable to ever recoup the money he’s lost.  Don’t kid yourselves folks, if Crabtree goes into next year’s draft, guys like Mardy Gilyard and Dez Bryant will have a hard time ending up better than him.  He’s incredibly talented and there’s no denying that.

I think where fans miss the boat on this is they don’t think about Crabtree playing football as his job.  Put yourself in his shoes but use the job you have now.  If you were offered another job, doing what you do now, but for a company you didn’t want to work for would you do it?  I suppose it would defend.  I think the assumption that everyone is operating on is, Crabtree needs the money.  Apparently he doesn’t.  So if the money isn’t na issue, he has every right to wait for the employeer he wants to hire him.

As for what I think will happen.  I see almost no chance that Crabtree ends up signing with the Niners by the deadline, and there’s no way if he goes back in the draft, the Niners draft him so let’s put aside the thoughts of him being a Niner.  A real possibility is next March the San Fransisco front office trades his rights to another team needing a wide out, and not wanting the talent on the market and not wanting to risk missing Crabtree in the draft. A final possibilty is no one bites and Crabtree becomes the top wide out in his second consecutive draft.  Is he a first round pick if that happens?  I suppose the talent around him in the first round will effect that some, but looking at who’s going to be on the board next April, I would fully expect him to be drafted in the first round.  This isn’t a Bo Jackson situation we are talking about.

I understand why the NFL is in a panic about this. The league has always be aligned so that the league holds all the cards, and the players are just along for the ride.  Crabtree could change some of that, especially with the potential of an uncapped year coming up.

Well there’s another one in the bag.

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

Mr Irrelevant is in, and just to be more irrelevant than usual it’s a Kicker. Which ironically means This year’s Mr Irrelevant, Ryan Succop, might actually have a good chance of making his team’s opening day roster. If he can beat out Connor Barth in Kansas City anyhow. What’s interesting for me is to look at who teams picked and see the different methods they’ve gone about selecting their picks. I’ll do my best to categorise a few notable examples:

1. The Trailer Trash Method
We’ve all seen Cops right? You know the ones where they have the woman in the trailer park beaten up and bloody desperately trying to convince the Cops not to take away her latest deadbeat boyfriend? Only for her to go out and find herself a new deadbeat boyfriend in the next exciting installment? Well that’s about how this method works. You know they’ve been bad in the past, it might be drugs, it might be run-ins with the law. They might just be flat out lazy or dumb as a bag of spanners but you’re still gonna chase after em, shower them with love, affection, expensive gifts only to have them just let you down again and again. Ladies, Gentlemen, I give you your Cincinnati Bengals! Ok, ok maybe I’m being a little harsh, I mean by Bengals standards this was a great draft. If the various deadbeat boyfriends can actually turn over a new leaf this might even be a great draft. God knows there is no lack of god given natural talent in this draft class. Andre Smith, probably the most talented all round Tackle in the draft. He’s available because he basically took the off in offseason too literally. Rey Maualuga, an unbelievable talent with some past transgressions of his own and Michael Johnson, perhaps the most intriguing combination of size, speed and athletic ability since Julius Peppers. But he’s so inconsistent that may be the last time you’ll ever see those two mentioned in the same sentence again. You know the last couple of drafts for the Bengals haven’t quite approached that train wreck status of the mid and early 00s but this one? They talk about prospects being Boom or Bust, this draft is Force or Farce.

2. The Pin the Tail on the Donkey Method
Also known as the Dart Board method. Simply put, you take some doddery old guy, stick photos of the top 20 prospects with the fastest 40 times around the walls, blindfold and spin the old geezer hand him a dart and let luck be thy lady tonight. It helps if some of those Top 20 photos on your walls are of guys no-one’s ever even heard of. Take a bow Al Davis and the Oakland Raiders! The runner up award goes to Meddlin’ Danny Snyder in Washington.

3. The Throw S$%! and see if it Sticks Method
In order to properly pull this one off you first need to trade away all your early picks in favour of a mountain of late round draft picks. The plan is this: 1. Pick up a big handful of crap. 2. Throw it at the wall. 3. Hope some of it sticks. To add further gravitas to this method it’s highly recommended that any time a camera cuts to your war room you do your best to look a) panicked, b) senile, c) drunk or d) all of the above. This technique makes great use of “the law of averages” and the law that states “even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day”. Jerry, 12 picks on day 2? There may well be some gems in there, but if they’re surrounded with crap you may never be able to spot them.

4. The Bamboozle/Monopoly Method
Perhaps the best living exponents of this method are the New England Patriots. Every year they enter the draft with about 15 first round picks. Deciding they’re too cheap to pay top end talent they attempt to confuse their peers by repeatedly trading, chopping and changing. Never sitting still for more than a minute. This technique appears to work brilliantly when once you’ve stockpiled 53 3rd round picks you somehow manage to sucker your foe into taking one of them off your hands for 1st or 2nd round pick next year. The main goal of this method appears to be some form of longterm draft domination whereby they trade so often and so repeatedly, they complete a total monopoly of Round 1. Presumably enabling them to build Hotels on the 5th pick and charge you $30,000 a night to stay there in an effort to have enough money to pay a first rounder for once. I understand the educational video is currently being filmed somewhere in New Jersey.

5. The Bet it all on Black Method
The draft is often described as a crap shoot. Well I prefer to look at it as Roulette. With this method you take most of your draft picks and bet them all on one spin of the wheel. Then you take what’s left and do the same again a little later. You’re going to walk away with something but like Vegas, everything looks great at night but by day it’s not quite what it seems. In case you hadn’t figured it out I’m talking about the New York Jets here, so maybe I should’ve gone with some Atlantic City references instead. Mark Sanchez certainly looks the part, hell he looks and talks as smooth as a politician with a velvet suit but is he more than a Vegas-like facade? Only one season starting in a system tailored to him means this might have been more like Russian Roulette for the Jets.

I feel like I should write something…

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

…mainly because no-one else has yet! Day One is in the history books and what has it taught us? Well firstly it’s taught me to design my CGI scripts better as trying to keep up with all the trades was frankly a bitch!

You can pick over all the mistakes I made and read Curt and Mark’s immediate unfiltered (except for the swear words and blatantly libellous material) reactions to each pick on our Draft Tracker. If you’re feeling in a particularly generous mood you can point out all the mistakes I’ve made with the trades! Drop me a line: ben@draftboardinsider.com

Secondly it’s taught me that Mock Drafts are a total lottery when even a rank amateur like me can make it look like they know what they’re doing. Seriously a 41? Joint 21st overall? That’s just insane considering I can’t even watch College Football from New Zealand. No wait, this is the point I’m supposed to say I’m a genius and swiftly move on right? Yeah, whatever… tomorrow I’ll be back to writing CGI scripts in the basement. Or maybe even my day job.

I am proud, and slightly worried that I correctly predicted the Heyward-Bey pick to Oakland. On one hand it’s a stroke of genius, on the other hand it’s the same thinking as Al Davis. Which is worrying. On the subject of Al Davis, Raiders fans, seriously you have my sympathy. We didn’t know who Michael Mitchell was either. It seems nfl.com didn’t either as despite their vast database of players (ours is only 360 or so big), their website was unaware of his position, height, weight and college for about 40 minutes. Ouch. Mel Kiper’s 73rd ranked Safety apparently. I was predicting another workout warrior, Michael Johnson to be Weird Al’s pick at that point. But hey he’s still out there so maybe round 3!

I’m not really the guy to comment on how well various teams drafted but if it’s grades for volume then Denver’s haul of  guys should net them the Valledictorian award. Dallas and Chicago get a frown from the teacher and a couple of “Incomplete” grades. No picks on Day One but the Cowboys have a whopping 12 picks on Day 2. When in doubt it appears you a) trade with Buffalo and b) try to use the law of averages to your advantage.

I’ll be back tomorrow in case anyone’s actually reading this s*%$

It’s Friday and the first pick is already in

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

Well, it’s actually late Saturday for me but hey. Yes the Detroit Lions have made it official by signing Joey Harring… I mean Matthew Stafford to a gargantuan deal, bigger than last weeks deal to the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Yeah Goodell, before you do anything else, it’s time to even out the money earned by rookies. It’s a crazy situation when a dozen kids who’ve never played a down in the NFL can earn more than half the proven vets in the league. Just crazy. The drop off in money for rookies is too high. They get too much at the head of the draft, probably about the right amount for the second half of round 1 and not enough beyond that. What’s even crazier is that 7th round selections end up making less than a lot of guys who aren’t even drafted at all! Yes the most prized undafted guys can often find themselves with bigger signing bonuses than their 6th and 7th round colleagues.

There are set amounts paid to players depending on how much league experience they have. I’d like to see there be levels set for what amount draft picks can receive based on their draft position. I somehow doubt the majority of current members of the NFLPA would disagree!

Oh wait this was going to be about Jotthew Staffington and how some teams in the NFL seem to just be cursed to repeat their mistakes.

I guess at least they didn’t draft a WR.

The Wonderlic’s are in!

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009

I’ve updated the database to include all the Wonderlic scores I could find for your perusal. They’ll show up under the Comparitive Rankings page. There’s not a whole lot else to say other than that, there’s probably nothing as dubious that comes out of the draft than the Wonderlic scores but they’re always good for provoking debate. So here’s the Top 10 smart guys and the Top 10 ummm not so smart guys.

Top 10 Smarties
1. Kevin Barnes CB Maryland - 41
2. A.Q. Shipley C Penn State - 40
3. Mike Reilly QB Central Washington - 38
=. Matthew Stafford QB Georgia - 38
=. Tiquan Underwood WR Rutgers - 38
=. Greg Isdaner OG WVU - 38
7. Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M - 35
=. James Casey TE Rice - 35
9. Larry English DE Northern Illinois - 34
10. Darryl Richard DT Georgia Tech - 33
=. Vontae Davis CB Illinois - 33

Bottom 10
1. Jeremian Johnson RB Oregon - 9
=. Marko Mitchell WR Nevada - 9
3. Demetrius Byrd WR LSU - 10
=. David Richmond WR San Jose State - 10
=. Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss - 10
6. Nate Davis QB Ball State - 11
=. Quinn Johnson FB LSU - 11
=. LeSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh - 11
=. Bernard Scott RB Abilene-Christian - 11
=. Johnny Knox WR Abilene-Christian - 11
=. Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina - 11
=. Robert Brewster OT Ball State - 11
=. Chris Baker DT Hampton - 11
=. Emanuel Cook DE South Carolina - 11
=. Troy Nolan S Arizona State - 11
=. Jamarca Sanford S Ole Miss - 11

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