Quick first round mock draft-Pre-Senior Bowl Edition
Written by Curt Popejoy on 01/18/2010
I had planned to wait until after the Senior Bowl to put out another mock draft, but I had so many asking for another, I thought I'd just toss out a quick one here. I have to say, I've rarely seen any player from the Senior Bowl wow me to a point where they made a huge jump, but I suppose anything is possible.
1. St. Louis Rams - Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame
No changes for me here. Seems St. Louis fans are split on Suh or a QB here. I expect there to be takers for this pick, and the Rams move down and still take a QB, while stockpiling some picks.
2. Detroit Lions - Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
If he's on the board, this pick is a lock. Detroit may need some spots worse than DT, but Suh is too good to pass up with their QB already in place.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
If Tampa can't jump ahead of Detroit to get Suh, McCoy is a nice consolation prize. He'll remind old school fans of Warren Sapp and bring a playmaker to the defense.
4. Washington Redskins - Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
Word is Bradford's shoulder is almost completely healed so assuming he works out well the Skins will have a hard time passing on him.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Berry S Tennessee
Could go with Russell Okung here but Berry would be much more impactful. He's the kind of player who can improve an entire defense. Don't be shocked if Scott Pioli deals this pick and stockpiles picks either because that was the Patriots style every year.
6. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State
You have to think Pete Carroll is going to make a move for a quarterback he can groom this year, so getting the guy who'll protect his blind side is a top priority.
7. Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden CB Florida
The Browns are another team I fully expect to try and go up and get a quarterback. If they can't, then Haden is a great pick, because he's the best player on the board. He can close off a player and let the front 7 bring more pressure without worrying about giving him help.
8. Oakland Raiders - Jason Pierre-Paul DE South Florida
Al Davis loves his workout warriors, and JPP looks to be one of 3 or 4 great ones this offseason. Don't get me wrong, I don't consider JPP to be the next Vernon Gholston at all, because he's a very good football player. If Davis passes on JPP, I would think Taylor Mays makes the most sense.
9. Buffalo Bills - Rolando McClain LB Alabama
This is assuming the Bills can find someone to take their head coaching position and they don't have to let the players run the team. McClain is a frightening player and would add a level of aggression and intensity to a defense that has been pretty soft.
10. Denver Broncos (from Chicago) - Carlos Dunlap DE Florida
I realize this pick is probably too early for Dunlap, but I also expect Denver to try and move down and still take Dunlap. He's the best 3-4 DE prospect in this draft and even if Brandon Marshall is dealt DE is their top need. I suppose I could plug Dez Bryant in here, but I think Denver will find a wide out later on in a deep class.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars - Tim Tebow QB Florida
I hate myself for even typing the name, but what the Heck. Do I honestly think Jack Del Rio wants Tim Tebow? No way. Do I think he may be pressured into taking him here? Yes.
12. Miami Dolphins - Dan Williams DT Tennessee
Miami would love if McClain fell to them, but getting Williams to play NT in that 3-4 would be a nice backup plan. I reckon a wide out wouldn't be out of the question here, or even a running back but I like Parcells to shore up that front 7.
13. San Francisco 49ers - Anthony Davis OT Rutgers
The Niners are going to have to get back to running the football if they continue to operate with substandard quarterbacks, and Davis is the best run blocking tackle in the draft.
14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) - C.J. Spiller RB Clemson
Pete Carroll has to see some Reggie Bush in Spiller and would be excited about all the ways he could incorporate him into the offense and special teams.
15. New York Giants - Brian Price DT UCLA
The Giants defense got beat around pretty good this season and part of that was from a lack of talent along that defensive interior. Price is cashing in on a huge junior season and the Giants are counting on him being able to maintain that type of production in the NFL.
16. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina) - Taylor Mays S USC
I am not as high on Mays as most, but I can see his measurables getting him drafted at least this high. If there's a coach in the league who can maximize Mays strengths, it'll be Singletary.
17. Tennessee Titans - Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech
The Titans could stand to upgrade at a couple of spots on defense with defensive end being one of them. Could go with a defensive tackle or cornerback here as well, but Morgan is the best 4-3 end in the draft to most, so he's a really nice value here as well.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Earl Thomas S Texas
The Steelers secondary was really exposed this season especially when Troy Polamalu was injured. Thomas is the perfect complement to him in the defensive secondary and could even play CB in nickel and dime sets.
19. Atlanta Falcons - Donovan Warren CB Michigan
The Falcons really have two big spots of need one of which is cornerback and the other is defensive end. I could have gone either way with this pick. I like Warren over any DE who's available at this spot, so I go Warren here and pick up a pass rusher in the second.
20. Houston Texans - Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State
Andre Johnson has been looking for a player to pair up with since he came to Houston and now he finally gets it. Bryant is a great player in his own regard and will really help the Texans passing offense.
21.Cincinnati Bengals-Jermaine Gresham, TE Oklahoma-With the tragic loss of Chris Henry, the Bengals were left minus a serious weapon in their passing game. Gresham is a dominant receiver, but is also a great run blocker which plays right to the Bengals run heavy philosophy.
22. New England Patriots - Terrence Cody DT Alabama
The Patriots have their pick of several players at this point. They could get a rush OLB, A TE or even a big RB to help bolster the offense. But I just have a feeling Vince Wilfork is going to be gone so getting his replacement may be a top priority.
23. Green Bay Packers - Bruce Campbell OT Maryland
I know after watching the Packers defense get torched, a cornerback is a top need. But Campbell is too good a value to pass up. He's probably going to be drafted higher than this in April, but his injury concerns are legit and could push him down some.
24. Philadelphia Eagles - Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa
Again a team with multiple needs but drafting for value with Bulaga. Tackle is certainly a need and compared to other players on the board, a BPA pick for sure.
25. Baltimore Ravens - Damian Williams WR USC
The Ravens defense is scary good, and their running game is rock solid, but they need another weapon in the passing game for Joe Flacco. Williams is an amazing route runner and would be an instant upgrade at the position.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Robinson CB Florida State
The Cardinals secondary was exposed bigtime in the playoffs. Robinson has really impressed me more and more this season and is a solid pick at this point in the first round.
27. Dallas Cowboys - Charles Brown OT USC
It's time for the Cowboys to make some changes on the offensive line and that means Flozell Adams has to go. Brown is really athletic and has tons of potential. The Cowboys could use another wide out or an upgrade at NT, but the value isn't there for those picks.
28. San Diego Chargers - Trent Williams OT Oklahoma
The Chargers may lose their start LT to free agency and even if they don't, Williams is a better option at RT than Jeromy Clary. Top need for SD is probably a NT but there's no one worth this pick.
29. New York Jets - Golden Tate WR Notre Dame
The Jets thought they found their answer with Braylon Edwards but the guy plays with boxing gloves on. Tate would be Mark Sanchez's best friend and would add instant offense and explosion on special teams.
30. Minnesota Vikings - Sean Weatherspoon LB Missouri
The rich get richer as the Vikings defense upgrades it's one position of weakness on that side of the ball. If there was a quarterback they could get to groom behind Favre they could look there or even an interior dlineman to play behind the Williams Boys.
31. New Orleans Saints - Jonathan Dwyer, RB Georgia Tech
First shocker of the round. Pierre Thomas is a FA and could be gone. If he is, and a guy like Pete Carroll comes calling for Reggie Bush the Saints could be in desperate need of a running game. I put Dwyer ahead of Jahvid Best only because we just don't know if Best can ever be 100% again. If he checks out healthy before the draft, I'd put him here in a second. If they retain Thomas, I expect an OLB here or perhaps a guard.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Everson Griffen DE USC
Logic says upgrade the interior of the defensive line, but the fact is, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can't play forever and both have dealt with injuries so their replacement is a must. Not to mention Griffen affords them great versatility and allows them to rest some as part of a rotation.
Last Edited: 01/18/2010
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| Reader Comments | Anonymous says: I cannot believe the Eagles would draft an offensive tackle in the first round especially when Sean Weatherspoon is still on the board. Submitted: 16:47:00 18-January-2010 Comment: #27 | Ben Morgan says: As Curt said, the Eagles could go in multiple directions. But one of the top OTs falling that far would be tough to pass up as far as Best Player Available and Value is concerned. Of course not all teams draft that way and it's entirely possible they could get locked in on a player they adore and just draft him regardless of who else is left. Mock Drafts are not what you'd call an exact science! Submitted: 17:27:26 18-January-2010 Comment: #28 | Chris in So Cal says: As a USC and Cowboys fan I'm familiar with both Charles Brown and the Cowboys need to replace Flozell soon. All season long I've stated Charles Brown isn't a "Cowboy" type of lineman but after watching the Viking game you may be right. We need to get more athletic there and Brown does that. Submitted: 19:45:32 18-January-2010 Comment: #29 | Cincinnati pick missing ... says: Way to proofread. Where is #21 and the Cincinnati Bengals pick? Submitted: 21:40:25 18-January-2010 Comment: #30 | Ben Morgan says: Re: #4... I guess I should put emphasis on the "Quick" part of "Quick first round mock draft". I've emailed Curt to let him know. Thanks for the heads up. Submitted: 22:31:36 18-January-2010 Comment: #31 | Pretty in Pink says: The Steelers secondary needs some upgrading but I give Troy's return and Burnett & Lewis's development a chance and wait to draft a corner or safety in round 2. This is the year the Steeler's have a chance at an OLT for the next 10 years. Therefore I go Brian Bulaga (or Trent Williams as an alternative) in round 1 and move Starks to RG. This assumes Colon stays at RT with either new contract or tender as RFA. I might even go for Maurkice Pouncey in round 2 and wait for safety or corner in round 3. Submitted: 14:48:10 19-January-2010 Comment: #34 | Ben Morgan says: Hey Pretty, thanks for commenting. Being a Steelers fan myself and one who's prepared to admit he was wrong, Starks is a legit NFL LT now. I'm still not 100% sold on Colon myself but he's made vast improvements the past 2 years as well. But even so I can see what you're saying, you rarely get a shot at a guy who may be a very good LT, and most of those type of guys at least make pretty good RTs early in their career. We're locked into Starks long term now. I believe Colon may be a free agent this offseason too? I forget. But that said you watch our games this year and the biggest position of fault was clearly safety, not so much with Polamalu in there but we have zero depth and 2 injury prone starters. One of whom is a free agent himself.
The Steelers seem to usually go BPA only when they think they don't have other glaring needs (eg Rashard Mendenhall) but generally Colbert will move up and get the guy he really wants. For me this offseason the Safety slot is the one we really need to get. But much of that will depend on whether they re-sign Ryan Clark and how well Polamalu heals. Regardless they definitely need to improve their depth there. Lewis and Burnett are more replacements for McFadden and Townsend to me. Lewis *may* be able to play safety but he's not shown that yet. Submitted: 15:56:53 19-January-2010 Comment: #37 | Pretty in Pink says: Hey Ben. I understand where you are coming from but I expect the Steelers to re-sign Clark and there is good safety depth to be had in rounds 2 & 3 such as Nate Allen or Reshad Jones as well as several corners. I think that Starks is adequate at best at LT and he has looked overweight and, at times, slow footed for the position this year - hence the move to RG where the Steelers still have a hole. Essex is a swing lineman only suitable for filling in where necessary and I was never sold on Darnell Stapleton. The Steelers may not get another chance in the next 5 years to get a quality left tackle. Colon is a FA if there is a new CBA, RFA if there isn't which is why I hedged my bets on contract or tender. I guess we see things differently but that is what discussion is all about. Good to chat with a fellow Steeler fan. Submitted: 16:19:58 19-January-2010 Comment: #38 | Ben Morgan says: I guess we are pretty different on our assessment of Max Starks. I'll be interested to read the list of sacks given up by individual players that surfaces around this time of year. From what I recall of specific games against teams with good pass rushes off the RDE/ROLB side though, Antwan Odom, Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs and Jared Allen in 4 games combined for a grand total of half a sack. That half a sack going to Dumervil and I think he may have even lined up over Colon in that game. Jared Allen I remember in particular. Starks just manhandled him all game. Starks can flat out pass block these days.
It's tough to accept that the guy we all bitched about (and I bitched more than most myself!) has actually turned into a very good NFL LT but it's there to see if you care to go back and look. I'll eat humble pie on Starks. I was wrong about him.
Keep checking back Pretty, thanks again for the comments. Submitted: 18:53:44 19-January-2010 Comment: #42 | Pretty in Pink says: I agree that Starks had some good games, particularly against Jared Allen, but I also specifically remember him giving up a sack to San Diego rookie OLB Larry English because he gave up on the play half way through - Ben fumbled but recovered. I also think he got heavier and slower as the season went on and if I get time I will look back on the later games in the season. I have nothing against Starks, I just don't think that he is as good as suggested. Nevertheless, whilst I would like to see a tackle with the number one pick, I would be happy with Curt's choice of Earl Thomas and also wouldn't be upset if it turned out to be Dan Williams of Tennessee although I think that the Steelers will franchise Big Snack. Submitted: 09:59:08 20-January-2010 Comment: #50 | Curt says: RE: Steelers draft. The point is, when Troy wasn't on the field the entire defense became neutered. The lack of talent in the secondary become so obvious when he was out, the Steelers must address that. Even when they brought pressure with the front 7, the opposing QB found players open. That is a product of talent. The drop off in this draft between a player like Thomas and someone like Nate Allen is tremendous. This team is no better with Allen, than with the cast of clowns already on the field. And when you consider at this point, Troy really cannot be counted on for 16 games, there must be another elite player in that back 4. Submitted: 21:29:38 21-January-2010 Comment: #65 | Pretty in Pink says: This is just a matter of perspective. Thomas may well be better than Allen but I do not think the difference is as 'tremendous' as you make out and still consider that the position can be addressed outside round 1. As previously said, I would not be unhappy with Thomas but feel that the Steelers can get better overall value by going elsewhere in round 1. We just see it differently. Submitted: 07:35:43 22-January-2010 Comment: #68 | Curt says: The Steelers passing on Earl Thomas to draft Nate Allen would be the equivalent of them passing on Troy Polamalu in the first round in 2003 to wait and draft Terrence Kiel. Thomas may be a better all around player especially in coverage than even Eric Berry. Submitted: 21:30:36 22-January-2010 Comment: #70 | Pretty in Pink says: Curt. First let me say that I have followed your views on a number to message boards such as OSMB previously and DraftSteel currently and I often agree with your comments which I find to be well reasoned and well researched. It is just that I don't agree with you in going safety in round 1 this year.
Neither am I am arguing that Nate Allen is better than Earl Thomas. I agree that Thomas is the best safety after Berry. What I am saying is that the Steelers can get a good enough safety in round 2, say Allen or Burnett, to improve the secondary and still be able to get a top flight LT in round 1. With improved play from Ike in 2010, Troy back, Clark resigned and he plays better alongside Troy, Gay learning from this season, Lewis & Burnett developing the Steelers secondary could be a lot better in 2010 in the same way as the 2009 O-line has been better than the 2008 O-line despite them being the same players other than swapping Essex for Stapleton. Allen or Burnett would be better backups than Carter if Troy or Clark missed time and can at the same time develop their game.
Everybody is having a kneejerk reaction to the secondary situation this year in the same way that they did last year to the 2008 O-line situation. But the Steelers didn't go O-line in the 1st round of last years draft and I am saying that they don't have to go Secondary this year (unless they could somehow get Haden which I would go with). The Steelers have not been in a position to get a top flight LT for the last few years and might well not be in that position for the next few. That is why I say get Bulaga or Williams either to stand behind Starks for a year or, ideally, to start in 2010 and move Starks to RG, a position of weakness as I am not sold on either Essex or Stapleton.
The Steelers lost a handful of games this year by small margins and an improvement in the Secondary as described plus my suggestion of a top quality LT in round 1 would, I believe, propel them back to the playoffs.
I know that Ben and I have a different view of Starks and he talked about sacks allowed stats so here are some that I picked up from the NFLFanbase?/NFLFanhouse? website. They cover the first 12 games of the season. I don't profess to know every LT in the NFL but I believe that these are.
Ferguson (NYJ) 2.5
Clady (Den) 2.5
Gaither (Balt) 3
Staley (SF) 3
Vollmer/Light (NE) 3
Starks (Pit) 4
Thomas (Cle) 4
Peters (Phi) 4
McNeil (SD) 4
Mckinnie (Min) 5
Baker (Falc) 5
Diehl (NYG) 5
Backus (Det) 6
The figures indicate to me that Starks is average but I am also going to argue against myself because what these figures don't tell you is what % of a teams offense were pass plays, whether the player played all 12 games, whether they had TE help or a back to chip.
I just think that the Steelers would do better with a LT in round 1, improving RG with Starks where his footwork is less challenged and still improve the secondary. I would also like to go LB & RB in rounds 3 & 4 but, of course, FA may change things. Submitted: 16:16:29 23-January-2010 Comment: #80 | Ben Morgan says: I don't know all the LTs in the league either but by definition there's 32 of them. That list has Starks joint 6th best in sacks given up. We also know that the Steelers passed a lot this year and that Starks didn't miss a game.
My big problem with your idea Pretty is that Starks to my knowledge has never even played Guard. So who knows what he'd be like at it? But we also pay him far too much money to go learn a new, less valued position. It just ain't going to happen. Sorry but the reality is that Starks is the Steelers starter at LT for the next few years. That's simply not going to change. He did a good job there this year and those stats you listed show he's well above average, not average. Giving up 4 sacks over 12 games? That's pretty good going in the NFL at LT. Almost certainly better than any rookie will manage. Could they draft a guy they can play at RT as a rookie? Yeah maybe, especially if it's a value pick but I just simply put zero stock in the idea that the Steelers are looking to replace Max Starks at LT. If they were interested in doing that they'd have done it 2 years ago. Instead since then they've paid him multi million dollars not once, but twice. Submitted: 16:54:17 23-January-2010 Comment: #81 | Pretty in Pink says: If Starks can play RT, which he has, then I believe he can shift inside and play RG. I guess we will just have to see things differently. It will be interesting to see what happens when the draft comes round. Submitted: 18:06:06 23-January-2010 Comment: #82 |
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